Saturday's NFL Games from a Gambling Perspective

Yes, we are talking about playoffs. Another NFL weekend filled with sitting on couches, digesting meat by the bucket loads, guzzling beers, as well as placing bets and making predictions in hopes of gaining extra cash, pride, bragging rights, or all three.

After a very successful first weekend in which I went 4/4 in picking winners, and 3/4 in going against the spread (who knew Atlanta would play that horrendously?) It is time to bring out the crystal ball and see what the 2012 Divisional Playoff weekend has in store for us and our wallets.

New Orleans Saints (-3.5) @ San Francisco 49ers

Over / Under: 47.5

This is a game between the yesterday and today of the NFL. An old school 49ers defense taking on the futuristic air-attack of Drew Brees and the Saints. The multitude of experts, analysts, and fans jumping to place their money on New Orleans isn't surprising, it's the safe bet, but here's why it's the wrong bet.

If the 49ers can avoid falling behind by more than two scores early in this game they'll survive to play another day. 

Smash Mouth D vs High Flying Offense

New Orleans is 5-3 on the road this season, against a relatively light schedule (St. Louis, Minnesota, Tampa Bay, Jacksonville, Indianapolis, Atlanta, Carolina, and Tennessee) and now they head across the country to take on the league's top ranked rush defense and 16th pass defense. On the road the Saints scoring is cut nearly in half of what they do when in the comforts of the Super Dome. 

With Patrick Willis and Frank Gore back at full strength, playing at home hosting their first playoff game in nearly a decade - and first under Jim Harbaugh I expect to see a lot of fight out of the 49ers - enough fight to pull the upset and wait to see if they're heading to Lambeau or hosting the New York Giants. 

Conventional wisdom says Saints, but I'm not feeling it. With a little inspiration from The Honey Badger I like San Francisco to upset the NFC South Champs: 28-24

Betting Re-Cap: Take the 49ers with the spread. Take the Over (47.5)